Projections of global energy transition models in the wake of industrial revolution and climate change policies

Author(s)

Engin Mert

Mehmet Aksu

Melih Soner Çeliktaş

Published: March 2025

ABSTRACT

This study evaluates the potential impacts of Industry 4.0 on energy demand, CO2 emissions, and climate change up to 2050 and provides an analytical basis for developing climate policies. Using the Low-Emissions Analysis Platform, the paper calculated projected technology diffusions under reference, moderate-adoption, and high-adoption scenarios. The findings reveal that adopting Industry 4.0 can significantly increase electricity demand. To address these challenges, the study recommends that policymakers adopt uniform carbon pricing policies, focus on decarbonizing energy supply and demand, and develop infrastructure for road transportation electrification. Policymakers are also urged to transition to carbon-free electricity generation technologies and implement pricing policies covering all sectors’ emission intensities to reduce total emissions effectively. Finally, the study highlights the importance of conducting holistic evaluations through life-cycle analyses. It suggests future research areas, including regional variations, energy demand shifts between sectors, energy cost evaluation, and conducting life-cycle analyses for electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies.

Citation: Clean Energy Science and Technology

Keywords: Industry 4.0; climate change policies; electrification; energy demand; LEAP; technology diffusion

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18686/cest273